[Exalted 1st Ed] Consequences of altering dice rolling

[Persell]

I am inclined to say that the storyteller misjudged the combat capabilities of the group a bit


AND that all white wolf games suffer from the oh so famous third level fighter problem, that is, whenever you have a combat optimized character like a dawn all encounters will have to take him as a measure. Enemies have to be able to wound and threaten the dawn in order for combat to be a challenge. Sadly anything that threatens a first edition defense stacking dawn very casually kills anyone who is not a combat solar/abyssal.


Sadly that is hardwired into exalted and we won't be able to help you with that one.


I suppose the first thing won't happen again though, storyteller rarely misjudge the combat capabilities of the characters more than once... at least not by accident ^^


@anima: Perhaps a houserule?

 

[Moonsilver]

Any RP game suffers from the problems Safim mentioned, but it is very exacerbated in Exalted. Players are meant to be able to come in as starter characters, pick a field and be astonishingly good at it. More so than in any other game I have come across apart from superhero ones. This leaves those who do not have the forte as mere sidekicks at best.


This is not too much of a problem as long as the GM regularly switches who is needed to ensure the party triumphs, one scenario it’s the warrior, next it’s the diplomat, next the sorcerer. I am exaggerating here, but you get the idea.


The OP wants the stats explaining, well if the code is right, using my example of “not house ruling to engineer a 5 botch die failureâ€

 

[Jakk Bey]

Pretty much.


You can have a "gritty" game and still be preserve the original mechanics. It's how you set the atmosphere and tone, not how you roll the dice. If your ST really wants to make it ugly, there should be greater consequences for wading into combat--say villages held hostage, sneakier foes, traps--I'm a huge fan of traps--and political fallout.


No matter how awesome your combat monkey is at slicing and dicing, if one consequence to them slaughtering a patrol of mooks, is that a village that had nothing to do with the conflict is wiped out, and the PCs know it, that might just give them pause--not just to preserve life, but also to keep their rep from plummeting, and finding every Spirit and Elemental, and Beastman whispering about them, and bounty hunters across the Creation searching for them, and their friends and family.


Making villains, well villainous, is part of the ST's job. While I think it's one approach to damping down the power level, this is a game that's designed for a HUGE power curve. And limiting the characters mechanically, I think, means the ST didn't quite take that into account, and rather than re-thinking their approach to how to deal with things, in story, and in situ, this house rule came up, and was justified as "gritty" when it sounds more like, "Damn, I didn't see that coming..."


I'm curious how this ST handles Stunting--because it's a mechanic that allows for heavy duty mulching of mooks and even major antagonists.

 

[Flagg]

It sounds to me like this ST isn't much in the creativity dept.

 

[cyl]

He seemed to have trouble running the game a few times as MB said, so, he might be twisted as well by the OWoD genre and system.

@wordman: could you explain the consequences of your last table of results please?

Compare percentage of success, botch and failure roll with 1 to 9 dicepool. Success here means at least one success, so the roll is based on a difficulty 1 roll.
With a dicepool of 9 with the canon rule, you have 98.99% chances to get a success,  0.20% to have  a failed roll (0 success rolled, no 1's) and a 0.81%  to get a botch.


With a dicepool of 9 with the OWoD rule, you have 90.54% chances to get 1 success,  0.20% to have afailed roll(0 success remaining) and a 9.26% to get a botch.


Means with the OWoD rule you have 8.45% less chances to succed in a difficulty 1 roll, and 8.45 % more chances to get a botch (whatever the difficulty).


Means that when the difficulty level on the roll goes up, you will have less chances to match it with the crappy rule than with the canon rule, and you are 8.45% fucked .


But I truly wonder if it can go lower than 8% on the botch chances.


@ wordman: Can you run the program with a let's say a dicepool of 8 to 17 ? (closer to what is commonly rolled in exalted) ?

 

[wordman]

@ wordman: Can you run the program with a let's say a dicepool of 8 to 17 ? (closer to what is commonly rolled in exalted) ?

With my current code, not in this lifetime. Running 17 dice alone would mean wading through 10^17 (that is 100,000,000,000,000,000) combinations. I munged my code a bit to make it about ten times faster than it was, but it still can only process about a million combinations a second. At that rate, it would take 10^11 seconds to finish. That's about 3,168 years, give or take.


You'd be better off figuring out the probability formulas for the various situations, as functions of n dice. I'm a bit burnt out on doing this from having figured out the wacky probabilities of rolling in Reign, but that post and my earlier tables in this thread may give you what you need to figure it out.


You could probably also do some Monte Carlo stuff that would approximate the various answers fairly rapidly.


Even just running code to make a million rolls of each size would give you pretty good answers.

 

[cyl]

That's about 3,168 years, give or take.

Sounds like a US jail sentence for a drunken driver- serial killer- rapist- insurance crook- child and animal molester- with a gun in the hand- who just smoked at the wrong place. :lol:

 

[Persell]

I'm a bit burnt out on doing this from having figured out the wacky probabilities of rolling in Reign, but that post and my earlier tables in this thread may give you what you need to figure it out.

How do you like reign?

 

[wordman]

Some Monte Carlo-style estimates. Each of these rolls a pool of n dice 100,000,000 times and tracks the result. The results are estimates based on random tries. Thus, they are not exact, and get less exact as the number of dice increases, since the 10^8 attempts made becomes a smaller and smaller ratio of the 10^n possible results as n increases. As an example, while it is possible for 12 dice to roll 24 successes, in the tests I run, the code never actually rolled more than 20. Rolling 24 successes on 12 dice is a 1 in 10^12 chance, and rolling just 10^8 times isn't likely to hit that. These tests were run with n ranging from 1 to 20. I'm guessing that once n=20, only using 10^8 samples results in pretty unreliable numbers.


Like the previous results, "success", "failure" and "botch" chance are reported. In addition, a guess at the actual number of successes is also (separately) reported. Results listed as "0.00%" are, in reality, some very small, but non-zero percentage. Results that aren't actually possible are marked with "-".

Result estimates for 1 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    40.00%    40.00%    40.00%
  failure    50.00%    50.00%    50.00%
  botch      10.00%    10.00%    10.00%
    2 sux    10.00%    10.00%      -   
    1 sux    30.00%    30.00%    40.00%
    0 sux    60.00%    50.00%    60.00%
   -1 sux      -       10.00%      -   

Result estimates for 2 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    64.00%    58.00%    64.00%
  failure    25.00%    25.00%    25.00%
  botch      11.00%    17.00%    11.00%
    4 sux     1.00%     1.00%      -   
    3 sux     6.00%     6.00%      -   
    2 sux    21.00%    19.00%    16.00%
    1 sux    36.00%    32.00%    48.00%
    0 sux    36.00%    31.00%    36.00%
   -1 sux      -       10.00%      -   
   -2 sux      -        1.00%      -   

Result estimates for 3 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    78.40%    68.19%    78.40%
  failure    12.50%    12.50%    12.50%
  botch       9.10%    19.30%     9.10%
    6 sux     0.10%     0.10%      -   
    5 sux     0.90%     0.90%      -   
    4 sux     4.50%     4.20%      -   
    3 sux    13.50%    12.00%     6.40%
    2 sux    27.00%    22.80%    28.80%
    1 sux    32.40%    28.20%    43.20%
    0 sux    21.60%    21.80%    21.60%
   -1 sux      -        8.40%      -   
   -2 sux      -        1.50%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.10%      -   

Result estimates for 4 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    87.04%    74.94%    87.04%
  failure     6.25%     6.25%     6.25%
  botch       6.71%    18.81%     6.71%
    8 sux     0.01%     0.01%      -   
    7 sux     0.12%     0.12%      -   
    6 sux     0.78%     0.74%      -   
    5 sux     3.24%     2.92%      -   
    4 sux     9.45%     8.07%     2.56%
    3 sux    19.44%    16.08%    15.36%
    2 sux    28.09%    23.25%    34.57%
    1 sux    25.91%    23.76%    34.56%
    0 sux    12.96%    16.39%    12.96%
   -1 sux      -        6.84%      -   
   -2 sux      -        1.62%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.20%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.01%      -   

Result estimates for 5 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    92.22%    79.80%    92.22%
  failure     3.13%     3.13%     3.13%
  botch       4.65%    17.07%     4.65%
   10 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
    9 sux     0.02%     0.02%      -   
    8 sux     0.12%     0.12%      -   
    7 sux     0.63%     0.58%      -   
    6 sux     2.39%     2.07%      -   
    5 sux     6.72%     5.56%     1.02%
    4 sux    14.31%    11.47%     7.68%
    3 sux    22.68%    18.20%    23.04%
    2 sux    25.91%    21.99%    34.56%
    1 sux    19.44%    19.80%    25.92%
    0 sux     7.78%    12.79%     7.78%
   -1 sux      -        5.56%      -   
   -2 sux      -        1.56%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.27%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.02%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.00%      -   

Result estimates for 6 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    95.33%    83.50%    95.33%
  failure     1.56%     1.56%     1.56%
  botch       3.10%    14.94%     3.10%
   12 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   11 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   10 sux     0.02%     0.02%      -   
    9 sux     0.11%     0.10%      -   
    8 sux     0.50%     0.44%      -   
    7 sux     1.77%     1.47%      -   
    6 sux     4.88%     3.91%     0.41%
    5 sux    10.61%     8.26%     3.69%
    4 sux    17.98%    13.96%    13.83%
    3 sux    23.33%    18.82%    27.65%
    2 sux    22.16%    20.03%    31.10%
    1 sux    13.99%    16.49%    18.65%
    0 sux     4.67%    10.19%     4.67%
   -1 sux      -        4.55%      -   
   -2 sux      -        1.42%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.30%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.04%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -6 sux      -        0.00%      -   

Result estimates for 7 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    97.20%    86.38%    97.20%
  failure     0.78%     0.78%     0.78%
  botch       2.02%    12.84%     2.02%
   14 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   13 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   12 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   11 sux     0.02%     0.02%      -   
   10 sux     0.09%     0.08%      -   
    9 sux     0.39%     0.33%      -   
    8 sux     1.32%     1.06%      -   
    7 sux     3.59%     2.78%     0.16%
    6 sux     7.90%     5.97%     1.72%
    5 sux    14.08%    10.59%     7.74%
    4 sux    20.01%    15.45%    19.35%
    3 sux    22.04%    18.47%    29.04%
    2 sux    17.96%    17.86%    26.12%
    1 sux     9.79%    13.76%    13.06%
    0 sux     2.80%     8.26%     2.80%
   -1 sux      -        3.75%      -   
   -2 sux      -        1.26%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.30%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.05%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.01%      -   
   -6 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -7 sux      -        0.00%      -   

Result estimates for 8 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    98.32%    88.67%    98.32%
  failure     0.39%     0.39%     0.39%
  botch       1.29%    10.94%     1.29%
   16 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   15 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   14 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   13 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   12 sux     0.02%     0.01%      -   
   11 sux     0.08%     0.07%      -   
   10 sux     0.30%     0.25%      -   
    9 sux     0.99%     0.77%      -   
    8 sux     2.65%     1.99%     0.07%
    7 sux     5.93%     4.34%     0.79%
    6 sux    10.97%     7.99%     4.13%
    5 sux    16.66%    12.37%    12.39%
    4 sux    20.41%    16.11%    23.23%
    3 sux    19.59%    17.52%    27.87%
    2 sux    14.00%    15.74%    20.91%
    1 sux     6.72%    11.52%     8.96%
    0 sux     1.68%     6.76%     1.68%
   -1 sux      -        3.11%      -   
   -2 sux      -        1.10%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.29%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.06%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.01%      -   
   -6 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -7 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -8 sux      -        0.00%      -   

Result estimates for 9 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    98.99%    90.54%    98.99%
  failure     0.20%     0.20%     0.20%
  botch       0.81%     9.26%     0.81%
   18 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   17 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   16 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   15 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   14 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   13 sux     0.01%     0.01%      -   
   12 sux     0.06%     0.05%      -   
   11 sux     0.24%     0.19%      -   
   10 sux     0.74%     0.56%      -   
    9 sux     1.98%     1.44%     0.03%
    8 sux     4.47%     3.18%     0.35%
    7 sux     8.52%     6.01%     2.12%
    6 sux    13.62%     9.75%     7.43%
    5 sux    18.07%    13.56%    16.73%
    4 sux    19.53%    16.12%    25.07%
    3 sux    16.63%    16.24%    25.08%
    2 sux    10.59%    13.75%    16.13%
    1 sux     4.54%     9.68%     6.05%
    0 sux     1.01%     5.57%     1.01%
   -1 sux      -        2.59%      -   
   -2 sux      -        0.95%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.27%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.06%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.01%      -   
   -6 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -7 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -8 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -9 sux      -        0.00%      -   

Result estimates for 10 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    99.39%    92.06%    99.39%
  failure     0.10%     0.10%     0.10%
  botch       0.51%     7.84%     0.51%
   20 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   19 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   18 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   17 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   16 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   15 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   14 sux     0.01%     0.01%      -   
   13 sux     0.05%     0.04%      -   
   12 sux     0.18%     0.14%      -   
   11 sux     0.56%     0.41%      -   
   10 sux     1.49%     1.05%     0.01%
    9 sux     3.38%     2.33%     0.16%
    8 sux     6.60%     4.51%     1.06%
    7 sux    11.00%     7.60%     4.25%
    6 sux    15.54%    11.15%    11.15%
    5 sux    18.38%    14.22%    20.07%
    4 sux    17.76%    15.66%    25.09%
    3 sux    13.60%    14.83%    21.49%
    2 sux     7.81%    11.96%    12.09%
    1 sux     3.02%     8.14%     4.03%
    0 sux     0.61%     4.62%     0.61%
   -1 sux      -        2.17%      -   
   -2 sux      -        0.82%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.25%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.06%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.01%      -   
   -6 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -7 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -8 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -9 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -10 sux      -        0.00%      -  

 

[wordman]

Result estimates for 11 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    99.64%    93.31%    99.64%
  failure     0.05%     0.05%     0.05%
  botch       0.31%     6.64%     0.31%
   22 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   21 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   20 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   19 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   18 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   17 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   16 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   15 sux     0.01%     0.01%      -   
   14 sux     0.04%     0.03%      -   
   13 sux     0.14%     0.10%      -   
   12 sux     0.43%     0.30%      -   
   11 sux     1.12%     0.77%     0.00%
   10 sux     2.57%     1.72%     0.07%
    9 sux     5.11%     3.39%     0.52%
    8 sux     8.81%     5.88%     2.34%
    7 sux    13.09%     9.02%     7.01%
    6 sux    16.62%    12.17%    14.71%
    5 sux    17.71%    14.41%    22.07%
    4 sux    15.52%    14.90%    23.65%
    3 sux    10.81%    13.38%    17.73%
    2 sux     5.66%    10.37%     8.87%
    1 sux     2.00%     6.87%     2.66%
    0 sux     0.36%     3.86%     0.36%
   -1 sux      -        1.82%      -   
   -2 sux      -        0.71%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.23%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.06%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.01%      -   
   -6 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -7 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -8 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -9 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -10 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -11 sux      -        0.00%      -   

Result estimates for 12 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    99.78%    94.35%    99.78%
  failure     0.02%     0.02%     0.02%
  botch       0.19%     5.62%     0.19%
   24 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   23 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   22 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   21 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   20 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   19 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   18 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   17 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   16 sux     0.01%     0.01%      -   
   15 sux     0.03%     0.02%      -   
   14 sux     0.11%     0.08%      -   
   13 sux     0.33%     0.22%      -   
   12 sux     0.85%     0.56%     0.00%
   11 sux     1.95%     1.27%     0.03%
   10 sux     3.95%     2.54%     0.25%
    9 sux     7.02%     4.53%     1.25%
    8 sux    10.88%     7.21%     4.20%
    7 sux    14.62%    10.19%    10.09%
    6 sux    16.83%    12.80%    17.66%
    5 sux    16.36%    14.23%    22.70%
    4 sux    13.12%    13.94%    21.28%
    3 sux     8.38%    11.98%    14.18%
    2 sux     4.03%     8.97%     6.39%
    1 sux     1.31%     5.81%     1.74%
    0 sux     0.22%     3.23%     0.22%
   -1 sux      -        1.53%      -   
   -2 sux      -        0.61%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.20%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.06%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.01%      -   
   -6 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -7 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -8 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -9 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -10 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -11 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -12 sux      -        0.00%      -   

Result estimates for 13 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    99.87%    95.22%    99.87%
  failure     0.01%     0.01%     0.01%
  botch       0.12%     4.77%     0.12%
   26 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   25 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   24 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   23 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   22 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   21 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   20 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   19 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   18 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   17 sux     0.01%     0.01%      -   
   16 sux     0.03%     0.02%      -   
   15 sux     0.09%     0.06%      -   
   14 sux     0.25%     0.16%      -   
   13 sux     0.64%     0.41%     0.00%
   12 sux     1.49%     0.94%     0.01%
   11 sux     3.06%     1.90%     0.12%
   10 sux     5.57%     3.48%     0.65%
    9 sux     8.94%     5.70%     2.43%
    8 sux    12.60%     8.40%     6.56%
    7 sux    15.45%    11.08%    13.12%
    6 sux    16.32%    13.09%    19.68%
    5 sux    14.59%    13.77%    22.13%
    4 sux    10.79%    12.88%    18.44%
    3 sux     6.37%    10.65%    11.07%
    2 sux     2.83%     7.75%     4.53%
    1 sux     0.85%     4.92%     1.13%
    0 sux     0.13%     2.72%     0.13%
   -1 sux      -        1.29%      -   
   -2 sux      -        0.52%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.18%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.05%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.01%      -   
   -6 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -7 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -8 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -9 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -10 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -11 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -12 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -13 sux      -        0.00%      -   

Result estimates for 14 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    99.92%    95.94%    99.92%
  failure     0.01%     0.01%     0.01%
  botch       0.07%     4.05%     0.07%
   28 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   27 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   26 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   25 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   24 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   23 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   22 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   21 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   20 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   19 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   18 sux     0.01%     0.00%      -   
   17 sux     0.02%     0.01%      -   
   16 sux     0.07%     0.04%      -   
   15 sux     0.19%     0.12%      -   
   14 sux     0.49%     0.31%     0.00%
   13 sux     1.14%     0.70%     0.01%
   12 sux     2.37%     1.43%     0.05%
   11 sux     4.40%     2.66%     0.33%
   10 sux     7.28%     4.48%     1.36%
    9 sux    10.69%     6.83%     4.08%
    8 sux    13.82%     9.40%     9.18%
    7 sux    15.63%    11.68%    15.75%
    6 sux    15.25%    13.06%    20.66%
    5 sux    12.63%    13.12%    20.66%
    4 sux     8.67%    11.79%    15.50%
    3 sux     4.76%     9.44%     8.45%
    2 sux     1.97%     6.69%     3.17%
    1 sux     0.55%     4.18%     0.73%
    0 sux     0.08%     2.29%     0.08%
   -1 sux      -        1.10%      -   
   -2 sux      -        0.45%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.16%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.05%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.01%      -   
   -6 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -7 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -8 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -9 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -10 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -11 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -12 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -13 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -14 sux      -        0.00%      -   

Result estimates for 15 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    99.95%    96.55%    99.95%
  failure     0.00%     0.00%     0.00%
  botch       0.04%     3.45%     0.04%
   30 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   29 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   28 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   27 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   26 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   25 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   24 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   23 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   22 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   21 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   20 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   19 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   18 sux     0.02%     0.01%      -   
   17 sux     0.05%     0.03%      -   
   16 sux     0.15%     0.09%      -   
   15 sux     0.38%     0.23%     0.00%
   14 sux     0.88%     0.52%     0.00%
   13 sux     1.83%     1.07%     0.03%
   12 sux     3.47%     2.03%     0.16%
   11 sux     5.89%     3.49%     0.74%
   10 sux     8.96%     5.49%     2.45%
    9 sux    12.12%     7.85%     6.12%
    8 sux    14.51%    10.20%    11.81%
    7 sux    15.21%    12.01%    17.71%
    6 sux    13.80%    12.82%    20.66%
    5 sux    10.65%    12.35%    18.59%
    4 sux     6.82%    10.71%    12.68%
    3 sux     3.50%     8.32%     6.34%
    2 sux     1.35%     5.77%     2.19%
    1 sux     0.35%     3.56%     0.47%
    0 sux     0.05%     1.94%     0.05%
   -1 sux      -        0.93%      -   
   -2 sux      -        0.39%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.14%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.04%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.01%      -   
   -6 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -7 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -8 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -9 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -10 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -11 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -12 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -13 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -14 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -15 sux      -        0.00%      -   

Result estimates for 16 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    99.97%    97.06%    99.97%
  failure     0.00%     0.00%     0.00%
  botch       0.03%     2.94%     0.03%
   32 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   31 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   30 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   29 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   28 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   27 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   26 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   25 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   24 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   23 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   22 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   21 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   20 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   19 sux     0.01%     0.01%      -   
   18 sux     0.04%     0.02%      -   
   17 sux     0.11%     0.07%      -   
   16 sux     0.29%     0.17%     0.00%
   15 sux     0.67%     0.38%     0.00%
   14 sux     1.42%     0.81%     0.01%
   13 sux     2.73%     1.55%     0.08%
   12 sux     4.75%     2.72%     0.40%
   11 sux     7.43%     4.38%     1.43%
   10 sux    10.47%     6.47%     3.92%
    9 sux    13.15%     8.73%     8.39%
    8 sux    14.65%    10.77%    14.17%
    7 sux    14.33%    12.11%    18.89%
    6 sux    12.16%    12.39%    19.84%
    5 sux     8.79%    11.50%    16.22%
    4 sux     5.28%     9.66%    10.14%
    3 sux     2.54%     7.32%     4.68%
    2 sux     0.92%     4.97%     1.51%
    1 sux     0.23%     3.03%     0.30%
    0 sux     0.03%     1.64%     0.03%
   -1 sux      -        0.79%      -   
   -2 sux      -        0.33%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.12%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.04%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.01%      -   
   -6 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -7 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -8 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -9 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -10 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -11 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -12 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -13 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -14 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -15 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -16 sux      -        0.00%      -   

Result estimates for 17 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    99.98%    97.49%    99.98%
  failure     0.00%     0.00%     0.00%
  botch       0.02%     2.51%     0.02%
   34 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   33 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   32 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   31 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   30 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   29 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   28 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   27 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   26 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   25 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   24 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   23 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   22 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   21 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   20 sux     0.01%     0.01%      -   
   19 sux     0.03%     0.02%      -   
   18 sux     0.09%     0.05%      -   
   17 sux     0.22%     0.13%     0.00%
   16 sux     0.52%     0.29%     0.00%
   15 sux     1.10%     0.61%     0.01%
   14 sux     2.15%     1.18%     0.04%
   13 sux     3.81%     2.11%     0.21%
   12 sux     6.12%     3.48%     0.81%
   11 sux     8.91%     5.28%     2.42%
   10 sux    11.69%     7.37%     5.71%
    9 sux    13.71%     9.45%    10.71%
    8 sux    14.31%    11.12%    16.06%
    7 sux    13.13%    12.00%    19.27%
    6 sux    10.46%    11.83%    18.39%
    5 sux     7.11%    10.62%    13.79%
    4 sux     4.02%     8.68%     7.96%
    3 sux     1.82%     6.42%     3.41%
    2 sux     0.62%     4.29%     1.02%
    1 sux     0.14%     2.59%     0.19%
    0 sux     0.02%     1.39%     0.02%
   -1 sux      -        0.67%      -   
   -2 sux      -        0.29%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.11%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.04%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.01%      -   
   -6 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -7 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -8 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -9 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -10 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -11 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -12 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -13 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -14 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -15 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -16 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -17 sux      -        0.00%      -   

Result estimates for 18 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    99.99%    97.86%    99.99%
  failure     0.00%     0.00%     0.00%
  botch       0.01%     2.14%     0.01%
   36 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   35 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   34 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   33 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   32 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   31 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   30 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   29 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   28 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   27 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   26 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   25 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   24 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   23 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   22 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   21 sux     0.01%     0.00%      -   
   20 sux     0.02%     0.01%      -   
   19 sux     0.07%     0.04%      -   
   18 sux     0.17%     0.09%     0.00%
   17 sux     0.40%     0.21%     0.00%
   16 sux     0.85%     0.45%     0.00%
   15 sux     1.69%     0.89%     0.02%
   14 sux     3.04%     1.63%     0.11%
   13 sux     5.01%     2.74%     0.45%
   12 sux     7.52%     4.27%     1.45%
   11 sux    10.23%     6.14%     3.73%
   10 sux    12.56%     8.16%     7.71%
    9 sux    13.83%    10.00%    12.84%
    8 sux    13.57%    11.29%    17.34%
    7 sux    11.73%    11.72%    18.92%
    6 sux     8.81%    11.17%    16.55%
    5 sux     5.65%     9.73%    11.46%
    4 sux     3.02%     7.75%     6.14%
    3 sux     1.29%     5.63%     2.45%
    2 sux     0.42%     3.70%     0.69%
    1 sux     0.09%     2.21%     0.12%
    0 sux     0.01%     1.18%     0.01%
   -1 sux      -        0.57%      -   
   -2 sux      -        0.25%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.09%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.03%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.01%      -   
   -6 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -7 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -8 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -9 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -10 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -11 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -12 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -13 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -14 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -15 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -16 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -17 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -18 sux      -        0.00%      -   

Result estimates for 19 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success    99.99%    98.17%    99.99%
  failure     0.00%     0.00%     0.00%
  botch       0.01%     1.83%     0.01%
   38 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   37 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   36 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   35 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   34 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   33 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   32 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   31 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   30 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   29 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   28 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   27 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   26 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   25 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   24 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   23 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   22 sux     0.01%     0.00%      -   
   21 sux     0.02%     0.01%      -   
   20 sux     0.05%     0.03%      -   
   19 sux     0.13%     0.07%     0.00%
   18 sux     0.31%     0.16%     0.00%
   17 sux     0.66%     0.34%     0.00%
   16 sux     1.32%     0.68%     0.01%
   15 sux     2.43%     1.26%     0.05%
   14 sux     4.08%     2.15%     0.24%
   13 sux     6.29%     3.43%     0.85%
   12 sux     8.83%     5.06%     2.37%
   11 sux    11.29%     6.95%     5.32%
   10 sux    13.05%     8.82%     9.76%
    9 sux    13.54%    10.38%    14.64%
    8 sux    12.54%    11.28%    17.97%
    7 sux    10.24%    11.31%    17.97%
    6 sux     7.28%    10.45%    14.52%
    5 sux     4.43%     8.87%     9.33%
    4 sux     2.25%     6.91%     4.67%
    3 sux     0.91%     4.92%     1.75%
    2 sux     0.28%     3.20%     0.46%
    1 sux     0.06%     1.88%     0.08%
    0 sux     0.01%     1.01%     0.01%
   -1 sux      -        0.49%      -   
   -2 sux      -        0.21%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.08%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.03%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.01%      -   
   -6 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -7 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -8 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -9 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -10 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -11 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -12 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -13 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -14 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -15 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -16 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -17 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -18 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -19 sux      -        0.00%      -   

Result estimates for 20 dice
   Result     canon       wod    damage
  success   100.00%    98.43%   100.00%
  failure     0.00%     0.00%     0.00%
  botch       0.00%     1.57%     0.00%
   40 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   39 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   38 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   37 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   36 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   35 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   34 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   33 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   32 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   31 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   30 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   29 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   28 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   27 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   26 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   25 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   24 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   23 sux     0.00%     0.00%      -   
   22 sux     0.01%     0.01%      -   
   21 sux     0.04%     0.02%      -   
   20 sux     0.10%     0.05%     0.00%
   19 sux     0.24%     0.12%     0.00%
   18 sux     0.51%     0.26%     0.00%
   17 sux     1.04%     0.52%     0.00%
   16 sux     1.93%     0.97%     0.03%
   15 sux     3.31%     1.68%     0.13%
   14 sux     5.22%     2.74%     0.48%
   13 sux     7.55%     4.15%     1.46%
   12 sux     9.99%     5.84%     3.55%
   11 sux    12.04%     7.66%     7.10%
   10 sux    13.15%     9.35%    11.72%
    9 sux    12.92%    10.59%    15.97%
    8 sux    11.32%    11.12%    17.97%
    7 sux     8.77%    10.80%    16.59%
    6 sux     5.92%     9.71%    12.44%
    5 sux     3.42%     8.04%     7.46%
    4 sux     1.65%     6.14%     3.50%
    3 sux     0.64%     4.30%     1.24%
    2 sux     0.19%     2.75%     0.31%
    1 sux     0.04%     1.61%     0.05%
    0 sux     0.00%     0.86%     0.00%
   -1 sux      -        0.42%      -   
   -2 sux      -        0.18%      -   
   -3 sux      -        0.07%      -   
   -4 sux      -        0.03%      -   
   -5 sux      -        0.01%      -   
   -6 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -7 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -8 sux      -        0.00%      -   
   -9 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -10 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -11 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -12 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -13 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -14 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -15 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -16 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -17 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -18 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -19 sux      -        0.00%      -   
  -20 sux      -        0.00%      -  

 

[Requiem of Forgotten Lore]

Hey wordman, I know you were saying that running your comp to do some numbers would take 3+ years for 17 +  dice.  Just throwing this out there as a suggestion so I don't know how well it holds up, but  I know the PS3 is super fast with the cell-chip processor (which is the reason I've contacted the makers of the microprocessor and to see if they will make computers with the cell chip).  If I remember correctly Sony (or someone) was asking if PS3 users wouldn't mind keeping their PS3's plugged into their cable modems and leaving them on standby so researchers could use the combined power to run these uber tests.  Maybe you can do something like that.


Again I'm just throwing this out there and it may not be feasible but then again you never always know who your friends know.

 

[cyl]

And so it seems that the number of dices reduces considerably the probability for botch... as there is a 30% chance of success against a 10% bad luck I get it, but closing in to 2%... I'm really amazed

 

[wordman]

...so researchers could use the combined power to run these uber tests.  Maybe you can do something like that.

If the exact solution was really that desirable, the effort to throw grids at it would be better spent just figuring out the probability math and calculating it for any value of n. It probably isn't that difficult, but I haven't burned many brain cycles thinking about it.

How do you like reign?

I'm not sure, yet. Most of my free time these days is between the hours of 11pm and 3am, which is not the most conducive to playtesting for our group, so I haven't played it yet. (Hell, our "regular" 1E Exalted game hasn't met for months.) I like a lot of what I've read, though. Its take on demons, in particular, is really cool. I'm also temped to use Poser and texture maps to figure out how the hell the world is put together. It sounds like you could get a lot of mileage out of the "company" stuff, as well, but I'm not entirely sure that mechanics for such things are really necessary. And, having a fetish for randomly rolled PC histories, the "one roll" character generation makes me giddy.

 

[brennanhawkwood]

And so it seems that the number of dices reduces considerably the probability for botch... as there is a 30% chance of success against a 10% bad luck I get it, but closing in to 2%... I'm really amazed

The chance of a botch 'stabilizing' around 2% was interesting.  


Regarding a roll where you are just looking for a success (the number you get doesn't really matter) the thing that I noticed was that as more and more dice are rolled, you appear to end up either succeeding OR botching.  Just failing the roll generally goes away as an option.  This seems to be 'significantly' the case as soon as 6 or 7 dice.  That could be a big contributer to the feeling that using the WoD rule really reduces your effectiveness.  You typically either succeed or you screw-up royally (and potentially memorably)...there is no middle ground.  


When you are looking for multiple successes, I suspect the difference between canon Exalted and wod methods is not as 'significant', though you do still have what appears to be a higher chance of outright botching the roll rather than simply failing when using wod rather than canon exalted methods.

 

[cyl]

So with a dicepool of 20 in the OWoD rule, you have almost the same chances than with the canon rule and a dicepool of 7...


Am I the only one to find it pretty stupid ?  :roll:


Something I don't understand with this new math, there is a high probability for 0 success through the OWoD stat, but it doesn't seem to register in the failure count...

 

[Coyotekin]

This is the thread that doesn't end. Yes it goes on and on my friends....

 

[Ledaal Kajiri]

Also odd is the fact the damage rolls regularly appear to be doing better than the standard rules. Frankly, that shouldn't be the case, since 10s don't count double for damage without the use of charms. That alone should reduce the average number of successes and not increase them.

 

[wordman]

there is a high probability for 0 success through the OWoD stat, but it doesn't seem to register in the failure count...

This is because zero successes can still botch, and most often do. For example, any oWoD roll that contains exactly the same number of successes and 1's is a both a zero success result and a botch.


Also, one thing I didn't mention, probably obvious. When doing my 100 million rolls, I would roll a set of dice once, then interpret that roll through the canon, oWoD and damage system independently. This is not doing 100 million rolls separately for each system.

Also odd is the fact the damage rolls regularly appear to be doing better than the standard rules. Frankly' date=' that shouldn't be the case, since 10s don't count double for damage without the use of charms. That alone should reduce the average number of successes and not increase them.[/quote']
Note that the "success/failure/botch" numbers will always be exactly the same between canon and damage. Where do you seem them doing better? You might be getting faked out a bit by the numbers here LK. I think what you are seeing is, for example, in the 8 dice results. Odds of getting, say 3 sux are way better for the damage roll than canon. This is because the damage results are "compressed" compared to canon. If you look at those numbers through a filter of "what's the chance of me getting" at least three successes, they should make more sense. To do this, you add up the result for 3sux, plus all the percentages above it. That is, of all the rolls that generated 3 sux in the damage system, those that contain 10's generate more than 3 sux in the canon system, essentially "stretching" the curve upward.